Carbon Dioxide Removal Consistent with Climate Pledges: A Multi-Model Assessment of Regional Potential

Gigaton-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be needed to meet the “well-below 2°C” goal of the Paris Agreement, with its role likely increasing under continued sluggish progress in achieving deep emissions reductions. However, it is unclear where and how such large removal volumes will be realized. Whereas many countries’ Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) imply large volumes of CDR by mid-century, their intermediate Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets often lack concrete scale-up plans or timelines. To support future decision-making, we conducted a model intercomparison exercise to improve the representation of a portfolio of CDR approaches in three leading integrated assessment models (IAMs) and to evaluate their role under NDC and LT-LEDS submissions as of late 2025. Our analysis indicates large mitigation potential from a diversified CDR portfolio that extends beyond the land-intensive approaches currently dominating mitigation pledges and the modeling scenarios used to inform them. While biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) still plays a large role, we also find 108 to 109 tCO2-yr-1 potential for enhanced rock weathering and biochar to contribute to decarbonization in India, China, and Latin America. We further find that international emissions trading (e.g., under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement) may reduce the global CDR requirement by enabling countries to achieve mitigation beyond their borders rather than relying on higher-cost domestic CDR. However, meeting the aspirational 1.5 °C Paris goal after overshoot will likely require even more ambitious near-term mitigation and/or sustained long-term net-negative emissions than evaluated here. Together, these results point to the need for explicit CDR planning and sustained investment in future NDC and LT-LEDS submissions, supported by continued enhancement of modeling tools.